Stropp's World

Games And Gamery

Nostradamus, Eat Your Heart Out. Or Not.

Posted by Stropp on December 30, 2010

Pretty much every MMORPG blogger in the known universe is going through the predictions made last year, and are scoring themselves on the success of those predictions. While I did make some predictions last December, I was going to give this a miss but, alas, have succumbed to this particular blogger malady. I made 10 prognostications for 2010, so here they are in all their glory.

Prediction #1 — The Star Trek Online release date would be pushed back once or twice from the release date, with a probability of 90%. Result: Wrong. Completely. While STO did need to be held back and given some more developer love, it was released on time.

Prediction #2 — Cataclysm will be released in November or December. I gave this a probability of 80%. Result: Nailed It. Cataclysm was released on December 7.

Prediction #3 — Star Wars: The Old Republic will be announced for a October release, but likely won’t make it and be pushed back to November. Result: Wrong. SW:TOR was announced to release in Spring ’11.

Prediction #4 — Taking #2 and #3 into account, Blizzard will try and cut Bioware’s lunch by announcing Cataclysm to launch around the same time as SW:TOR. Result: Wrong. This was heavily dependant on EA-Bioware announcing the release for late 2010. (As noted.) As the date was for Spring 2011, this fell well outside Blizzards window. If SW:TOR had been announced for Jan/Feb 2011, I suspect we might have seen a Feb release for Cataclsym.

Prediction #5 — The micro-transaction model will be applied to more existing games. A probability of 100%. Result: Well, Duh. 100% correct. What surprised me though was the games that it was applied too, and how it was done. LotRO going free to play surprised me considering how well the game was going, and had been received. (It seemed a little crazy to mess with something going that well.) And EQ2, while having a long established cash shop, surprised me by adding the free to play servers that were much more dependent on microtransactions to progress.

Prediction #6 — The MMORPG community will be rocked by some big IP lawsuits between larger companies. Result: Didn’t really hit that mark. There is the BethesdaInterplay Fallout IP lawsuit happening of course, but it’s not really a community rocking event, more a spat between two companies, one who is intent on seeing the other fail so they can get all the rights to the Fallout IP. Other than that, nothing much. Still… it’s just a matter of time really.

Prediction #7 — The first of the long-shots. Turbine announces that AC will go free to play. Probability, 10%. Result: Ba Bahm. LotRO beat AC to the punch on that one. This may still happen, but further reading indicates that the architecture of the AC servers may actually thwart any major systems such as a microtransaction model being implemented, and unfortunately, that seems to be the only reason for a game to go to the FTP model these days.

Prediction #8 — Blizzard will announce the name and details of their new MMORPG. 10% chance of this happening. Result: Wrong. This was not likely as Blizz always hold info back until the last moment. Some details have been released, but only the codename of the project.

Prediction #9 — SOE will announce Everquest 3 with a probability of 20%. Result: Kinda right. I was a bit skeptical, but it does seem like this is happening. However, the official announcement of EQ3 has not been made as far as I’m aware. It’s more hinting than anything else.

Prediction #10 — EA will announce the next Ultima Online MMORPG. I gave this a 1 in 100 chance, somewhat jokingly. Result: Correct. Sort of. EA announced and released Lord of Ultima which has been critically received as crap, and nothing to actually do with Ultima Online and more to be a competitor to Evony. Still, since EA own the IP they can use it anyway they like, and if they choose to make this an Ultima MMO…

So there you have it. Last years predictions with a score of 4-ish out of 10.  Not really that great a score, the future is inherintly unpredictable, but then the only reason that Nostradamus did so well was because he wrote his predictions in riddles and prose ambiguous enoughto fit any future event. Hmmm. Maybe that’s the way to write out 2011′s predictions.

2010 Prognostications

Posted by Stropp on December 25, 2009

225px-Nostradamus_by_CesarIt’s kind of an expected activity for bloggers these days. At the end of each year, we make a bunch of predictions for the coming year and review the ones we made last year. But since I didn’t actually make any predictions last year, there’s only one thing to do.

Make some predictions for the coming year, 2010.

I did consider writing my predictions in some form of abstract poetry like our friend Nostradamus (pictured right.) After all, anything written in an abstract and obtuse manner can be interpreted as 100 percent correct after the fact. But really, where’s the fun in that? And writing poetry isn’t really my forte — There once was a man called Enis…

So time to put on my silly hat and on to the prophetically predicted prognostications.

Prediction 1: The release date for Star Trek Online will be pushed back from the initial February date at least once, possibly twice.

Reason(s):  Not many modern MMORPGs or their expansions actually make the first release date. There’s always more to do, and beta testing often reveals serious problem that need to be corrected.

Probability: 90%

Prediction 2: Blizzard will release Cataclysm late in the year around November, or early 2011 in February.

Reason(s): Based on past experience, these are the dates that Blizzard releases their expansions.

Probability: 80%

Prediction 3: The Star Wars: The Old Republic release date (the rumoured October 2010 date) will be massaged in a similar fashion as the date for STO, but I expect that EA-Bioware will announce and push for a November 2010 release.

Reason(s): EA are going to want a successful MMORPG on the streets sooner, rather than later. Since the rumours (apparently coming from EA) so far indicate a late 2010 release for SWTOR, I’m expecting an announcement sometime around June. The rumoured October date may be announced, but I expect that will be pushed back to late November in time for Christmas stockings.

Probability: 50%

Prediction 4: Corollary to Predictions 2 and 3: Blizzard will wait until EA-Bioware announce the release date for SWTOR and then announce the Cataclysm release date to be around the same time.

Reason(s): This appears to be a standard policy at Blizzard. For the last few years, when a threat to World of Warcraft’s dominance appears, real or perceived, Blizzard times their expansions or major announcements in an attempt to steal their competitors thunder. Some of this might just be unfortunate timing, but it’s happened a number of times. SWTOR is a very high profile game with a good chance to become at least number two in the MMORPG space and give Blizzard a run for their money. I’d be very surprised if Blizzard doesn’t try and slow them down, and releasing Cataclysm (which is effectively a reboot of WoW) will throw a huge monkey in Bioware’s wrench.

However, if Bioware don’t release late 2010 or early 2011, Blizzard will be forced to release Cataclysm well before SWTOR and that won’t have as much of a negative effect.

Probability: Very High if Bioware intend to release SWTOR in 2010.

Prediction 5: The micro-transaction model will be applied to more existing games.

Reason(s): A bit of a no-brainer this one. In some ways 2009 was the year of micro-transactions for Western MMORPGs with Dungeons and Dragons Online proving that the model not only works, but can re-invigorate a game that was previously struggling on the subscription model. I expect that we’ll see the DDO model adopted more and more for other games that haven’t been as successful as the developers have hoped and there will be some MMORPGs announced in development by Western developers intended to be micro-transaction based.

Probability: 100%

Prediction 6: In 2010 the MMORPG communities will be rocked by IP type lawsuits with far reaching implications.

Reason(s): I pretty much hate making this prediction, but based on the increasing number of patent troll lawsuits in other technological arenas, there’s a good chance that there will be one or more lawsuits in the coming year that will be won by the trolls, and may result in either the termination of a game or the radical modification of game play to comply with the IP requirements. In fact there is already a case going on initiated by a company called Worlds.com that has serious implications for MMORPG companies.

As an aside to this, it’s also possible that there will be at least one lawsuit between two MMORPG companies. This could be between two of the big players (which is less likely) or between one of the big boys, possibly EA or Blizzard, and one of the smaller players in the market.

Probability: 70%

Now for some long-shot predictions.

Prediction 7: Turbine will announce that they are going to move Asheron’s Call to a free to play, micro-transaction model. This will cause fuss in the AC community, but Turbine will sweeten the pot by creating a new client for the game.

Reason(s): AC is still being supported by Turbine with new content each month, so they haven’t consigned it to a maintenance status. Coupled with the increased interest on the tenth anniversary, Turbine will see an opportunity to reinvigorate the AC franchise.

On the other hand they may just announce Asheron’s Call 3.

Probability: 10%

Prediction 8: Blizzard will announce the name and details of their new MMORPG.

Reason(s): It’s entirely possible that Blizzard will announce the details of the new game sometime in 2010 simply because there’s a lot of interest. I’m giving it a lower chance of happening because the game isn’t expected until 2014ish and Blizzard don’t tend to make early announcements. It may happen in the coming year or two, but there’s a better chance of an announcement in 2012.

Probability: 10%

Prediction 9: SOE will announce Everquest 3.

Reason(s): There was some buzz a while back about SOE working on Everquest 3. It was apparently mentioned in the last chapter of a book on MMORPGs by someone at SOE. Personally, I’m skeptical. I’m not sure SOE will want to risk damaging the EQ2 population and diminishing that game.

That said however, there would definitely be a contingent at SOE pushing for a new EQ, and there’s a possibility that SOE will act (or has acted) on that push. EQ2 is now five years old, and it would take three or four years to develop EQ3. If SOE have been working on EQ3 for more than a year, there’s a good chance it will be announced this year for release sometime in 2013.

Probability: 20%

Prediction 10: EA will announce the next Ultima Online MMORPG.

Reason(s): This is a real long shot mind you, but there have been a few attempts at getting a sequel to Ultima Online. Ironically, the original sequel UO2 was canned because someone thought it would negatively impact on UO. Now, after 12 years of UO, a sequel won’t be nearly so bad for the game. You can be guaranteed someone at EA has thought about it.

However, given EA’s recent sackings, and their consolidation of their interests, it’s highly unlikely that such an announcement will be made this year. But I did want to make one really really way out prediction.

Probability: 1%

So there you have it. My Christmas-time predictions for the next 12 months. Fortunately I’m not taking or placing bets on these ham and turkey induced prophecies as things rarely turn out the way anyone expects. About the only thing I can guarantee will happen is that the MMORPG industry will continue to change and mature. But whatever happens, it should be interesting to watch.

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